Legislative Report #6

Our thanks to Bob and Mary Bedford and Jon Conley for the following update. This represents Legislative Report #6

Emergent Design and Development, Inc.
Legislative Update
December 15, 2008

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Full Appropriations Council on Education & Economic Development
David Rivera, Chair
Marti Coley, Vice Chair
Ron Saunders; Democratic Ranking Member
Faye Culp
Greg Evers
Anitere Flores
Richard Glorioso
Eduardo Gonzalez
Adam Hasner
John Legg
Seth McKeel
Dave Murzin
Stephen Precourt
William Proctor
Ron Reagan
Will Weatherford
Ronald Brise
Joseph Gibbons
Bill Heller
Evan Jenne
Martin Kiar
Geraldine Thompson

PreK-12 Appropriations Committee
Anitere Flores, Chair
John Legg, Vice Chair
Martine Kiar, Democratic Ranking Member
Ellyn Setnor Bogdanoff
Erik Fresen
Kelli Stargel
Gwyndolen Clarke-Ree

Education Policy Council
Faye Culp, Chair
Marti Coley, Vice Chair
Bill Heller, Democratic Ranking Member
Anitere Flores
John Legg
Seth McKeel
Stephen Precourt
William Proctor
Will Weatherford
Charles Chestnut IV
Martin Kiar
Betty Reed

PreK-12 Policy Committee
John Legg, Chair
Anitere Flores, Vice Chair
Martin Kiar, Democratic Ranking Member
Rachel Burgin
Clay Ford
Erik Fresen
Charles McBurney
Scott Plakon
Kelli Stargel
Ritch Workman
Dwight Bullard
Mia Jones
Rick Kriseman

SENATE

Education PreK-12 Appropriations Committee
Stephen Wise, Chair
Gary Siplin, vice Chair
Larcenia Bullard
Nancy Detert
Rudy Garcia
Garrett Richter

Education PreK-12 Committee
Nancy Detert, Chair
Frederica Wilson, Vice Chair
Larcenia Bullard
Lee Constantine
Don Gaetz
Eleanor Sobel
Rhonda Storms
Stephen Wise

Select Committee on Florida’s Economy
Don Gaetz, Chair
Jeremy Ring, Vice Chair
JD Alexander
Mike Bennett
Dan Gelber
Mike Haridopolos
Tony Hill
Jim King
Ken Pruitt
Garrett Richter
Eleanor Sobel

Interim Committee Meetings – Week of December 15

The House and Senate will meet the week of December 15 to for budget hearings. The Senate was not scheduled to meet, but decided to meet on Wednesday and Thursday to begin discussing budget reductions for this current fiscal year. A special legislative session on the budget is expected in January.

Senate Special Meeting

The Full Senate met for a briefing on the budget and revenue projections. Here’s the bad news.

• Unemployment rates are climbing – ranking (by county) from a low of 4.5% to a high of 13.0%
• Population growth is slowing – growth hovered between 2.0% and 2.6% from the mid 1990’s to 2006, continuing to slow only reaching 0.7% in 2008.
• U.S. economy simultaneously buffeted by three major shocks: home prices have fallen across the nation for first time since the Great Depression (down 17% so far); financial markets are experiencing worst credit crunch since the late 1980s at best – maybe since the Great Depression; and U.S. recession is spreading globally, causing additional feedback loops.
• Florida has been particularly hit hard by two housing-related shocks: home prices and credit tightening.
• National inventory of homes is above 11 months.
• In Florida, excess supply of homes is likely greater than 300,000.
• Using most recent sales experience, Florida needs significant time to work off current excess of homes – January to March, 2010 is optimistic, and July to September 2010 is pessimistic forecast.
• Florida has 2nd highest number of foreclosure filings (54,324 in October) and 3rd highest foreclosure rate (1 in every 157 housing units).
• Recession is now reality and is longer than last two recessions – projected to last two more quarters.
• Florida will recover but revenue concerns are more persistent relative to some past events and economic strength will be slow to return; credit markets remain frozen; global recessionary conditions affect international migration, tourism and spending decisions, as well as exports; U.S. Consumers will be responding to massive wealth destruction and tighter credit conditions; and recovery in Florida housing market not anticipated until April 2010, at least.
• Five areas of concern: slower population growth; loss of wealth effect on declining home prices and portfolio/investment losses; growing home inventory; spreading credit crunch; and reality of national and global recession.

For the current fiscal year (2008-09), the current projected deficit is $2.3 billion. Assuming the 4% holdback is enacted by the Legislature which accounts for approximately $1 billion, an additional $1.2 billion remains. This must be addressed now in order to balance the budget.

For the 2009-2010 Fiscal Year, the projected deficit is $3.8 billion (this deficit is beyond any cuts that have been made this year).